Europe Faces Prolonged Energy Strain Even If Iran War Ends Tomorrow
"In the best of cases, we have to prepare for a fairly tough summer," Jorgensen said in an interview with Spanish media published Tuesday.
Characterizing the overall energy outlook as "very serious," the commissioner cautioned that the crisis is poised to deepen as global energy markets absorb the full shock of the ongoing conflict.
"Even if peace is declared tomorrow, we are facing weeks, months, and even years of difficulties when it comes to energy prices," he said.
Jorgensen singled out severe damage to natural gas infrastructure across the region — particularly in Qatar — as a key driver of prolonged price pressure, warning that repairs could take years to complete. While oil markets may find their footing more swiftly, he stressed that even brief disruptions carry outsized consequences.
"Just a few weeks can be crucial if we run out of jet fuel or diesel, or face supply problems," he said.
Consumers, especially air travelers, are set to feel the pinch almost immediately, the commissioner cautioned.
"Flying will become more expensive and, in some cases, we could even see cancellations," he said.
A Wake-Up Call for Renewable Transition
Jorgensen framed the crisis as a defining moment for Europe's long-delayed shift away from fossil fuel dependence, arguing that the bloc's current exposure is unacceptably high.
"While we import more than €370 billion (about $435 billion) of fossil fuels each year, we remain too vulnerable," he said, revealing that Europe has already absorbed more than €20 billion in additional energy costs since the Iran war began.
He firmly closed the door on any revival of Russian energy imports — even in the event of a resolution to the Ukraine war — drawing a hard line on Brussels' long-term energy strategy.
On immediate mitigation measures, Jorgensen said the European Commission would present a menu of demand-reduction options, leaving individual member states to determine implementation. He was pointed in his criticism of fuel tax cuts, which several EU governments have already rolled out despite Brussels' discouragement.
"In a situation of scarcity, the goal should be to reduce consumption, not increase it," he said.
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